Beyond Termination: Managing Long-Tail Risk from Fixated Threat Actors
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When violence erupts in the workplace, it’s often not random—it’s the result of a long-building pattern that can be traced back to earlier warning signs. From childhood trauma and school difficulties to relationship breakdowns, threat actors often reach a tipping point and look for an outlet to release their frustration. Sometimes, that outlet becomes a former employer.
That was the case here.
Strategy: Understanding the Person Behind the Threat
To determine the level of risk and inform the next steps, Rozin Security immediately conducted a Behavioral Threat Assessment and developed a Threat Management plan. While the individual had not yet engaged in physical violence, Rozin identified a credible risk of escalation—especially if the person were to experience destabilizing events such as job loss, financial hardship, or a breakdown in social support systems.
Working closely with the client, Rozin implemented a multi-layered mitigation strategy that combined proactive outreach, background intelligence, behavioral analysis, and protective measures:
- Direct Engagement with the Person of Concern (POC)
To diffuse the immediate threat and gain insight into the individual’s mental state, Rozin’s team initiated contact by discreetly posing as a staff member from the targeted non-profit. This approach created a safe, low-pressure space for the POC to express grievances—providing both a de-escalation opportunity and a window into his grievance. It also served to redirect his focus away from the targeted organization. - Intelligence & Background Review
Rozin analysts conducted a detailed review of the POC’s criminal, financial, and social background to uncover any indicators of elevated risk. This included:
● Address history and property records
● Vehicle and license registration
● Employment history and termination details
● Criminal background checks
● Open-source intelligence (OSINT) and digital footprint review-
- This intelligence-gathering phase was critical to understanding any connections, triggers, or patterns that might indicate a shift toward violence.
- “This wasn’t about a single event—it was about an unresolved pattern. In cases like this, early recognition and structured intervention can mean the difference between a threat and a tragedy.”
— Rozin Security Analyst, Behavioral Threat Management Team
-
- Enhanced Protective Measures
Rozin recommended a series of physical and digital security upgrades to protect individuals named in the POC’s communications, including:
● Strengthening on-site security at company facilities
● Increasing security presence at the private residences of high-risk personnel
● Minimizing online exposure by auditing social media, public records, and third-party data sourcesThese measures helped reduce both real and perceived vulnerabilities - Clinical Behavioral Risk Assessment
Rozin deployed the HCR-20 Version 3 (HCR-20 V3)—a structured professional judgment tool widely used to assess the risk of targeted or general violence. The evaluation revealed key behavioral traits, including narcissism, deflection of blame, and refusal to accept accountability for past performance—factors commonly linked to fixation and risk escalation.
What is the HCR-20?
The HCR-20 is a clinical risk assessment tool that evaluates 20 risk factors across three categories: Historical, Clinical, and Risk Management. Unlike a checklist, it supports expert professional judgment—ensuring that no critical behavioral indicators are overlooked when evaluating someone’s risk of future violence.
Outcomes: A Strategic Plan to Prevent Escalation
Rozin Security helped the client implement a proactive action plan designed to monitor the threat, reduce exposure, and prevent violence—all while supporting a path toward de-escalation.
- Ongoing Monitoring — Rozin analysts continue to receive and assess all communications from the POC using the CTAP-25 framework. Alerts were also set in monitoring platforms like CLEAR and TLO to detect any significant changes in the individual’s financial, housing, or social status—key indicators of destabilization that could increase the likelihood of violence.
What is CTAP-25?
CTAP-25 is an evidence-based, structured professional judgement tool for assessing inappropriate, concerning, or threatening communications—both online and offline. Unlike many tools that focus only on violence risk, CTAP-25 also considers disruption, reputational damage, financial loss, and recipient distress. - De-escalation Through Redirection — Rozin recommended discreetly leveraging community networks to help the individual secure meaningful employment elsewhere. This approach offered a non-confrontational outlet for his frustration and a chance to redirect his focus away from the employer.
- Relationship Repair via Reconciliation — A carefully planned, non-confrontational dialogue, possibly initiated by a respected community figure, was proposed to acknowledge the individual’s grievances. This interaction would aim to foster emotional closure and encourage engagement with mental health or career support resources, without reinstating direct contact with company leadership.
- Contingency Planning — All staff and contractors at the client organization were briefed on the potential threat and provided with clear guidance on what to do if the individual reappears or makes contact.
- Victim Safety Planning —Individuals named in grievances were encouraged to assess their personal security, reduce online exposure, and consider enrolling in the Safe at Home program. Law enforcement coordination protocols were also reinforced for any sign of imminent risk.
Conclusion
This case highlights the reality that risks don’t end with termination—especially when unresolved grievances and emotional instability are involved. Through early intervention, behavioral analysis, and strategic engagement, Rozin Security helped the client prevent a potentially violent situation and put a plan in place for long-term safety.
To learn more about how your organization can minimize risk with high-risk terminations, contact Rozin Security to speak with one of our senior consultants.
Beyond Termination: Managing Long-Tail Risk from Fixated Threat Actors
Share Post
When violence erupts in the workplace, it’s often not random—it’s the result of a long-building pattern that can be traced back to earlier warning signs. From childhood trauma and school difficulties to relationship breakdowns, threat actors often reach a tipping point and look for an outlet to release their frustration. Sometimes, that outlet becomes a former employer.
That was the case here.
Strategy: Understanding the Person Behind the Threat
To determine the level of risk and inform the next steps, Rozin Security immediately conducted a Behavioral Threat Assessment and developed a Threat Management plan. While the individual had not yet engaged in physical violence, Rozin identified a credible risk of escalation—especially if the person were to experience destabilizing events such as job loss, financial hardship, or a breakdown in social support systems.
Working closely with the client, Rozin implemented a multi-layered mitigation strategy that combined proactive outreach, background intelligence, behavioral analysis, and protective measures:
- Direct Engagement with the Person of Concern (POC)
To diffuse the immediate threat and gain insight into the individual’s mental state, Rozin’s team initiated contact by discreetly posing as a staff member from the targeted non-profit. This approach created a safe, low-pressure space for the POC to express grievances—providing both a de-escalation opportunity and a window into his grievance. It also served to redirect his focus away from the targeted organization. - Intelligence & Background Review
Rozin analysts conducted a detailed review of the POC’s criminal, financial, and social background to uncover any indicators of elevated risk. This included:
● Address history and property records
● Vehicle and license registration
● Employment history and termination details
● Criminal background checks
● Open-source intelligence (OSINT) and digital footprint review-
- This intelligence-gathering phase was critical to understanding any connections, triggers, or patterns that might indicate a shift toward violence.
- “This wasn’t about a single event—it was about an unresolved pattern. In cases like this, early recognition and structured intervention can mean the difference between a threat and a tragedy.”
— Rozin Security Analyst, Behavioral Threat Management Team
-
- Enhanced Protective Measures
Rozin recommended a series of physical and digital security upgrades to protect individuals named in the POC’s communications, including:
● Strengthening on-site security at company facilities
● Increasing security presence at the private residences of high-risk personnel
● Minimizing online exposure by auditing social media, public records, and third-party data sourcesThese measures helped reduce both real and perceived vulnerabilities - Clinical Behavioral Risk Assessment
Rozin deployed the HCR-20 Version 3 (HCR-20 V3)—a structured professional judgment tool widely used to assess the risk of targeted or general violence. The evaluation revealed key behavioral traits, including narcissism, deflection of blame, and refusal to accept accountability for past performance—factors commonly linked to fixation and risk escalation.
What is the HCR-20?
The HCR-20 is a clinical risk assessment tool that evaluates 20 risk factors across three categories: Historical, Clinical, and Risk Management. Unlike a checklist, it supports expert professional judgment—ensuring that no critical behavioral indicators are overlooked when evaluating someone’s risk of future violence.
Outcomes: A Strategic Plan to Prevent Escalation
Rozin Security helped the client implement a proactive action plan designed to monitor the threat, reduce exposure, and prevent violence—all while supporting a path toward de-escalation.
- Ongoing Monitoring — Rozin analysts continue to receive and assess all communications from the POC using the CTAP-25 framework. Alerts were also set in monitoring platforms like CLEAR and TLO to detect any significant changes in the individual’s financial, housing, or social status—key indicators of destabilization that could increase the likelihood of violence.
What is CTAP-25?
CTAP-25 is an evidence-based, structured professional judgement tool for assessing inappropriate, concerning, or threatening communications—both online and offline. Unlike many tools that focus only on violence risk, CTAP-25 also considers disruption, reputational damage, financial loss, and recipient distress. - De-escalation Through Redirection — Rozin recommended discreetly leveraging community networks to help the individual secure meaningful employment elsewhere. This approach offered a non-confrontational outlet for his frustration and a chance to redirect his focus away from the employer.
- Relationship Repair via Reconciliation — A carefully planned, non-confrontational dialogue, possibly initiated by a respected community figure, was proposed to acknowledge the individual’s grievances. This interaction would aim to foster emotional closure and encourage engagement with mental health or career support resources, without reinstating direct contact with company leadership.
- Contingency Planning — All staff and contractors at the client organization were briefed on the potential threat and provided with clear guidance on what to do if the individual reappears or makes contact.
- Victim Safety Planning —Individuals named in grievances were encouraged to assess their personal security, reduce online exposure, and consider enrolling in the Safe at Home program. Law enforcement coordination protocols were also reinforced for any sign of imminent risk.
Conclusion
This case highlights the reality that risks don’t end with termination—especially when unresolved grievances and emotional instability are involved. Through early intervention, behavioral analysis, and strategic engagement, Rozin Security helped the client prevent a potentially violent situation and put a plan in place for long-term safety.
To learn more about how your organization can minimize risk with high-risk terminations, contact Rozin Security to speak with one of our senior consultants.
